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The Guns of December

November 19, 2007   

Ever since the summer of 2006, when war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah and Hamas guerillas, we have heard mounting rhetoric concerning the likelihood of a new “world war”, mostly fueled by conservative talking heads seeking to rally their political constituencies against the menace of radical Islam.

Once the UN-brokered truce in Lebanon was in place, the alarms focused on the ascendant power of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Iran and its growing nuclear threat.   Many on the American left have rallied their troops against the increasingly dubious specter of a pre-emptive strike by US forces against Iran to abort the threat.

Those anticipating an apocalyptic showdown could finally get what they are dreading, but not in accordance with any of the conventional wisdom or in any of the expected locations.

The flashpoint?  The same place that the very first “Armageddon” – that is, World War I – started almost a century ago.  The Balkans, or more specifically – as in 1914 - Serbia.

Just as what historian Barbara Tuchman called the “guns of August” in the summer of 1914 awakened the world to the beginnings of a disaster for Western civilization,  so a looming development next month could have the same unforeseen and devastating consequences following much the same logic. And as in 1914 the world is not much paying attention, even though all the right tinder is there to ignite.  In the first world war the flammable materials were ethnicity and nationalism.  In the next world war they could be ethnicity – and religion!

Consider the chain of events that set off the first conflagration.  Serbian nationalist agitation, culminating in the assassination of a Hapsburg archduke, provoked Austria and Germany to strike back, which drew in Russia, then Britain, and eventually the United States.  In December 2007 it is highly likely that mostly Muslim Kosovo will declare independence with the quiet encouragement of the United States from Orthodox Christian Serbia, which is heavily supported by Russia.  The United States, which in 1999 with help of NATO bombed Serbia into submission over the Kosovo issue, hopes that discretely backing the breakaway province’s independence will mend fences with the Muslim world, even while the European Union this time around is much more conflicted and cautious, and a resurgent and globally feisty Russia will probably not roll over as they did a decade ago.

The real wild card is the not-so-transparent agenda of Hashim Thaci, the former guerilla leader, who now heads the newly elected democratic government in Kosovo. 

His international critics, mainly orthodox Christians, claim that Thaci, nicknamed The Snake while fighting the Serbs, will now build an Islamist state with ties to Middle Eastern radicals in the heart of Europe.    They compare his election to that of Hamas in Gaza.

The US foreign policy establishment and the majority of European diplomats pooh-pooh that possibility, even though there is evidence that Thaci’s Kosovo Liberation Army had definite ties with Al Qaida earlier in this decade and he has more recently been receiving political encouragement and support from Iran.  Some non-jihadist commentators in the Muslim world have openly predicted that Kosovo independence would mean that the Russian province of Chechnya would be the next opportunity for Islamist irredentists.   That may be one of the key reasons Putin is not playing nice with the West.

The Russians may understand something we didn’t even grasp during the Kosovo War during the Clinton administration.  With our inane, collective refusal to recognize the power of religious motivation in the shaping of the new global order, or disorder, we may be blundering toward something no one wants, or anyone can believe.   World War I, the conflict no one then wanted, broke out largely because, as historians recognize, all the European powers were caught up in a frantic and futile attempt to preserve a complex “balance of power” among nation-states that was increasingly disrupted by a force no one yet took seriously – militant nationalism. 

World War III will come about – and it is certainly not inevitable – because the Western powers are caught up these days in a hopeless effort to maintain the crumbling “neo-liberal” global balance of economic power without taking seriously the force of militant religiosity.   As the Swedish foreign minister recently said about the second Kosovo crisis, "we need a soft landing on this issue, or we'll have a hard crash."   To rephrase a familiar paraphrase, the bigger the self-delusion, the harder the crash.

If I were one of the striped pants fashion plates at Foggy Bottom, I’d start wearing a crash helmet. 

Carl Raschke

Links 

The following links concern the new Kosovo crisis.

http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=43288 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/19/europe/19kosovo.php 

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/11/20/europe/EU-GEN-Kosovo-Domino-Effect.php 

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hyZzpY1EzzUM-6c1vIw2fyzu8DOwD8T1IPMO0

Other Links

http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/270717.aspx 

            (Nov 15) The LAPD has shelved a plan to map the city’s Muslim communities after protests from Muslim groups and the ACLU. Opponents to the plan did not like its potential ramifications and saw it as an invasion of privacy. The LAPD claims the word “mapping” misrepresented the project as religious profiling, and has asserted that it will continue in its efforts to reach out to Muslim communities in the area. 

http://www.christianpost.com/article/20071115/30105_Why_are_Bibles_Disappearing_from_Hotels%3F.htm 

            (Nov 15) Hotels are beginning to stop placing Bibles in the hotel rooms, according to this article, which claims that they are being replaced by iPod docking stations, flat-screen TVs, music, complimentary goldfish, and/or intimacy kits. The placement of Bibles was started by the Gideon Foundation in 1899 in an attempt to meet the religious needs of the traveling public. Possible reasons include the prominence of a new generation with different tastes and the increase in travel for leisure reasons rather than business.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7096108.stm 

            (Nov 15) There are mixed reactions to Israel’s Prime Minister’s recent call for Palestinians to recognize Israel as a Jewish state as a pre-condition for talks after the Annapolis peace conference. Some groups see the call as not only reasonable but necessary.  On the other side, it is being seen as racist and counter-productive. There is also fear that the move may derail the Annapolis peace conference.

http://www.metimes.com/International/2007/11/15/tajikistan_severe_religious_law_readied/8731/

            (Nov 15) Tajikistan’s culture ministry’s religious department has designed new legislation which would make it tougher for smaller religious communities to register with the authorities. New conditions include an increase in the minimum number of members and a prohibition on missionary activities. The two major religious groups in Tajikistan, Islam and Russian Orthodox Christianity, have been concerned with newer groups since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=494118&in_page_id=1770&in_a_source=

            (Nov 15) Islam fundamentalism is being blamed for a rise in controversial “virginity repair” operations in London. According to one doctor, the procedure is driven by cultural expectations that a woman be a virgin on the wedding night and, if she is not, it is seen as a big shame on the family. The operation can involve suturing a tear in the hymen, which could result from sexual assault, or can be purely cosmetic, involving the implantation of a membrane filled with an artificial blood-like substance.

 http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/13/africa/witches.php

            (Nov 13) Child advocates estimate that thousands of children of living on the streets after being accused of witchcraft and cast out by their families in Angola, Congo and the Congo Republic. Angola’s Bantu culture is that witches can communicate with the world of the dead and take or manipulate the life force of others. Government officials attribute the surge of persecutions of children to the long-term war and strife of the area, which has left some families in ruins and others too destitute to feed all the children.

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news/support-for-separation-of-religion-governance-growing-in-pakistan_100231.html

            (Nov 14) The PEW Institute for Public Opinions has reported that in 47 surveyed countries, people support the separation of religion and politics.  Support for the strict separation is growing in Pakistan, which is up from 33% five years ago to 48% now. However, support has declined in Turkey, which was at 73% five years ago and is at 55% now. Additionally, all 47 countries reported at least 70% of the people believe education is important for both boys and girls.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/connecticut/ny-bc-ct--marijiuana-religi1116nov16,0,4970492.story

            (Nov 16) A judge has ruled that religious beliefs are not enough to warrant a reduction in prison time in the case of a Rastafarian man who has pleaded guilty to possession and intent to sell 20 pounds of marijuana earlier this year. The judge noted that she had respect for the religion, which believes selling, trading and possessing marijuana is a God-given right, but that he could not use his beliefs to hide his illegal actions.

http://www.secularism.org.uk/87962.html

            (Nov 16) A recent survey of 700 influential businessmen, innovators, politicians and others of London’s elite reports that 38% claim to have no religion, and 47% ascribe to Christianity (down from 72% in the latest census). Seventy-one percent believe faith schools should be restricted or abolished completely, and a majority were opposed to the wearing of the full face veil anywhere. Additionally, the survey reports strong opposition to any censorship of images or words that might offend Islamic sensibilities and to the designation of Eid as a public holiday.

http://www.catholicnews.com/data/stories/cns/0706574.htm

            (Nov 16) Douglas Johnston, president and founder of the International Center for Religion and Diplomacy has expressed belief that faith-based diplomacy can offer an effective path for dialogue and international problem-solving. According to Johnston, diplomats, especially in the U.S., have limited or no training in how religion can be a factor in diplomacy. Johnston backs up his claim with examples from his experiences.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-11-16-voa23.cfm

           (Nov 16) An increasing number of Islamic academies are opening in order to attend to demand for schools that combine regular school curriculum with Islamic Studies, including lessons on teachings of Islam and Arabic.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/divisions-in-muslim-brotherhood/2007/11/16/1194766965617.html

            (Nov 17) The Muslim Brotherhood, the world’s largest, oldest and most influential Islamic organization is struggling with internal divisions. The struggle is largely due to differences in views of how to transform from a religious organization to a political party.

http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=7369638&nav=menu183_10_1_1

            (Nov 16) A U.S. court has upheld a ruling claiming that an Orthodox Jew, whose photo was taken and displayed without his knowledge, cannot claim violation of his civil rights because he did not file suit within a year of the display of the photograph. The Jewish man filed suit because his religion forbids reproducing his image because of the Second Commandment’s prohibition against graven images. He did not learn of the display until March 2005, and took action shortly after.

http://www.panthic.org/news/126/ARTICLE/3680/2007-11-14.html

            (Nov 14) Officials in Pakistan Punjab estimate more than 15,000 Sikhs from around the world are likely to visit the sacred Gurdwara Nankana Sahib during November to celebrate the Parkash Divas of Gru Nanak Dev Ji, the first Guru of the Sikhs. The government has made arrangements to help with immigration, boarding, lodging and security.

http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.php?id=25926

            (Nov 16) Iraq’s President Talabani has promised Chaldean Patriarch Mar Emmanuel III Delly that the Christian faith will be allowed to be taught in Iraqi schools. However, one problem will be finding teachers to teach Christian religion, since many of the country’s Christians have fled or been forced to emigrate.

http://www.ldnews.com/columns/ci_7429493

            (Nov 11) Americans, many of whom are church-going people who believe in God, appear increasingly ignorant about their own religion, according to this article. And yet, our political system and media are saturated with biblical references. The author argues that the lack of biblical literacy in the country’s youth is harmful, especially because so much of our culture is based upon the Bible. To fix this, he recommends introducing classes about religion in all of our schools.

 http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gzNxw1ruYMGD4c4cTz3BQpSzWHtw

            (Nov 11) More than 1,000 university students in Afghanistan protested this past week, demanding the death penalty for an official accused of insulting the Koran. The man is accused of misinterpreting the Koran in a new translation into Dari.  The translation does not include any original Arab verses and is said to differ on several significant issues, including homosexuality and adultery. The man was arrested last week at the Pakistan border attempting to flee.

http://www.theamericanmuslim.org/tam.php/features/articles/muslim_civil_rights_groups_oppose_lapd_mapping_project/0014952

            (Nov 11) Muslim and civil liberties groups and institutions have voiced opposition to the recently proposed a project by the LAPD to map Muslim communities in Southern California. In a letter sent to the LAPD, they claim that “the mapping of Muslim communities as part of counter-terrorism efforts seems premised on the faulty notion that Muslims are more likely to commit violent acts than people of other faiths” and that the project thus constitutes an unlawful and deeply offensive form of religious profiling.

http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=1788472007

            (Nov 11) Despite a long-term decline in church attendance and organized religion, a recent survey reports that one in three Scots still prays. The survey, published by the Christian relief and development agency Tearfund, reports that about half pray at least once a day, and one in five believes prayer is effective in bringing change. Additionally, respondents say that praying makes them feel better, more peaceful, stronger and happier.

http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2007/11/11/41529.html

            (Nov 11) On November 4, six policemen in Cairo apparently dragged a woman into a police van, all the while beating and kicking her, while reporting to a domestic dispute case. Then, they ran over the woman’s sister-in-law, who stood in front of the van to stop them from leaving. Now, Egypt’s top religious advisor has sparked an outcry by ruling that the police officers were not responsible for the lady’s death. A decision about the drowning of illegal immigrants fleeing to Italy was also issued, which claimed that the dead were not martyrs as they died out of greed.

http://www.postcrescent.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071111/APC04/711110441/1890/APClife

            (Nov 11) For the past 10 years, the non-denominational Hands of Christ Deaf Ministry has worked to help deaf and hard-of-hearing Christians worship. Members provide basic information and preparation on baptism, communion, confirmation and marriage, as well as religious education classes, pastoral counseling, vacation Bible school and sign choir. The ministry is supported by the Winnebago Presbytery, the Episcopal Diocese of Fond du Lac, the United Church of Christ, the United Methodist Church and the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.

http://story.malaysiasun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/b8de8e630faf3631/id/298936/cs/1/

            (Nov 10) The head of the Muslim Council of Britain, Dr. Muhammad Abdul Bari, has accused the government of stoking tension among the country’s Muslims, reminiscent of activities in Nazi Germany. Dr. Bari says that MI5 released erroneous information, including claims that 2,000 people were involved in terrorist activity and children as young as 15 were being groomed to be suicide bombers. Dr. Bari rejects the idea that there is such a thing as Islamic terrorism, arguing that while terrorists may use religion for their goals, regarding the terrorists as members of a specific religion stigmatizes the whole community.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h5DEjL83YJii82_vlIu0P3AX4iMg

            (Nov 12) The New York-based Human Rights Watch and the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights have issued a statement condemning Egypt’s ID card system, saying that limiting minorities to legal status as Jew, Christian or Muslim unduly discriminates and leads many to obtain forged documents, which can result in criminal prosecution. ID cards are required for many basic needs in Egypt, including opening a bank account, getting a driver’s license, enrolling at school, getting a job, and many other actions. The organizations recommend eliminating the religion line on IDs in order to further any claim about the government’s neutrality regarding religious affiliation.

http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/news.apx.-content-articles-CBD-2007-11-12-0006.html

            (Nov 12) A new comic book series called “The 99” will has hit stands in 25 countries around the world. Unlike other comics though, the heroes in these are based on the Islamic values and principles, exemplified in the 99 traits of Allah. Each hero is from a different country, and represents strength, wisdom foresight, mercy, etc. The message intended for Muslims and non-Muslims alike, is one of global solidarity. While the comics present Islam in a positive light, religion isn’t mentioned anywhere in the story.

http://www.anba.com.br/ingles/noticia.php?id=16513

            (Nov 12) In Brazil, a new magazine has begun publication in order to supply readers with information on the dogmas, practices, and beliefs of Islam. The publishers’ intention is to convey to the Brazilian public the basic message of Islamic religion, one of peace and understanding, to counter distorted and prejudiced views often seen in newscasts.

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-1783_2219899

            (Nov 12) The Lutheran and Catholic churches in Berlin have teamed up to file suit with Germany’s highest court, hoping to stop a new law that allows shops to be open ten Sundays per year. The churches allege that German workers have a constitutional right to not work on Sundays or holidays, and that the interests of business should not interfere. The ten Sundays include the four Advent Sundays before Christmas and six other Sundays of the company’s choice.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/religion/Story/0,,2209960,00.html

            (Nov 13) According to a recent phone survey, Muslims in London feel a greater sense of pride and identity with their local area than the rest of the general public. Muslim respondents indicated a greater enthusiasm about diversity and importance of freedom to practice religion openly. Otherwise, the vast majority of Muslims were reported to hold views in common with the rest of London, including respect for the law, the value of democracy, and the importance of mutual respect and equal opportunities.

http://worldsikhnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1155&Itemid=29

            (Nov 11) In efforts to befriend the Chinese government, India recently told its ministers to boycott a function in honor of the Dalai Lama. The reason for the written order was not stated, but it comes as a stark contrast to the usual support India has offered to Tibetan monks and the Tibetan cause. New Delhi apparently took note of the government’s recent annoyance whenever the Dalai Lama has been accorded a warm reception by a foreign government.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article2858549.ece

(Nov 12) Dozens of senior Anglican bishops and other church leaders have signed up for a course in conflict management at Cambridge University in hopes that it will help them resolve doctrinal disputes rather than forcing a schism. The aim of the course is to equip church leaders (particularly of the Church of England) with the psychological tools to deal with the conflict over gays before next summer’s Lambeth Conference. It is being aimed at leaders to preach peace and love to governments and other faiths, but hit a snag when it comes to their own tradition.

http://www.imemc.org/article/51456

            (Nov 12) Thirteen Austrian bishops were barred from praying at the Western Wall after refusing to a Rabbi’s demand that they remove crucifixes. The bishops were making a circuit of all the holy sites of Jerusalem, and were not aware of any ban on crucifixes in the western wall area.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7090144.stm

            (Nov 12) Eight people have been injured and nearly 200 Sufi Muslims have been arrested in Iran after attacking the mosque of a cleric who labeled their religion as illegitimate and recommended their lodge be shut down. Sufis are generally tolerated in Iran, although a number of religious leaders believe they are a threat to Islam. Sufism, a form of Islamic mysticism, maintains belief in a mystical path to God through prayer, dance and music.

http://www.dailytimes.bppmw.com/article.asp?ArticleID=7125

            (Nov 12) A Muslim Sheikh and other Muslims have been sentenced to five months imprisonment with hard labor after fighting in a mosque in Malawi. The Sheikh was accused of swindling money intended for development of the mosque and told to vacate the position.  After refusing to do so, some members attempted to stop him from preaching and a fight broke out.

Richard Bishop